It is recognised that changes in climate as small as a 2°C rise in global temperature will have serious impacts including rising sea levels and more extreme events such as droughts and heavy rainfall. Over the next 50 -80 years we should expect to experience in Oxfordshire:

• warmer, drier summers
• milder, wetter winters
• more frequent extremes of temperature and rainfall
• these changes in our climate could lead to reduced air quality and higher levels of ozone.

The UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) provide probabilistic data for 30 year time periods centred on every decade to the end of the century, within three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The illustrations below depict variables for Oxfordshire for the 2080s (representing 2070-2099) under a medium emissions scenario. The projections are presented against baseline data from 1961-1990.

Oxfordshire in the 2080s under a medium emissions scenario

Average summer temperatures in the 2080’s  are likely to increase by between 2^oC and 8^oC.

Average winter rainfall is likely to increase between 0% and 60%.

Oxfordshire in the 2050s under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario

This is thought to be more representative of our current trajectory:

• Summer average daily maximum temperatures in the 2050s are likely to be 22-27^oC (this represents a rise of approximately 2-7^oC from the baseline period)
• Winter average temperatures for the same time period and emissions scenario will be 7-10^oC (a likely increase of approx 1-4^oC)
• Here the likely change in summer average rainfall ranges from a 12% increase through to a 40% decrease  (this shows the difficulty of preparing for the range of changes to Oxfordshire’s climate that we might see)
• Average rainfall in winter is likely to increase by between 3% and 37%.

To explore the UK climate projections for Oxfordshire in more detail, visit: ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk where you will find further key findings and prepared maps, and discussions about how the data can be applied.